The Science Behind Big Mistakes and 4 Things You Can Do to Avoid Them

We all make mistakes. Then there are those times when it’s A REALLY BIG mistake.

We aren’t talking about line item errors that can be rectified once you recognize them. Or even forecasting miscalculations that you can recoup in the next quarter.

We’re talking about when something goes horribly wrong, and everyone gets together after it and tries to figure out, “What the hell just happened?”

Research on Big Mistakes

One researcher says many big mistakes could be avoided, or at least minimized, if people paid more attention to certain factors that lead up to disasters.

Finance leaders and anyone in leadership roles who recognize the potential for bigger mistakes – the kind that can hurt the company’s bottom line, reputation, people or future – can avoid them. That’s according to the late Charles Perrow, author of Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies.

His research and theory are based (and often proven) on this: In a “Normal Accident,” there is no single massive failure, rupture or sabotage. Instead, a Normal Accident is generated by the unexpected, incomprehensible interaction of multiple minor, independent failures.

That applies to anything from devastating, life-loss mechanical failures to headline-making financial disasters.

Here are four factors Perrow says lead to big mistakes – plus tips on how to safeguard against them:

1. Overrated Confidence

Many accidents and mistakes are triggered by experienced people who were so confident of their skills and oversight that they became complacent.

For instance, wildland firefighters who’ve been on the job about 10 years are the most likely to be injured or killed. The reason: That’s about when they think they’ve seen it all, so they falsely believe they can win against it all.

Yes, confident leaders should be in charge of projects, sensitive or highly technical financial work. But you also want extra oversight in critical processes and decision-making.

As an example, in our industry, it’s said, “Every great editor has an editor.” A colleague looks at copy before the audience does. Egos get put aside, as it could even be a less experienced writer editing a seasoned writer’s work.

2. Lack of Focus on Repetitive Tasks

Before most big mistakes, a small mistake is usually made. That’s because people don’t focus as much on simple, repetitive tasks. Details fall through the cracks.

For instance, at the 2017 Oscars – when the presenter announced the wrong winner for Best Picture – someone probably easily got distracted or starstruck while passing out envelopes.

Now, to counter a lack of focus, the U.S. Navy has trained, but inexperienced, sailors on aircraft carrier crews that handle launching and recovering the aircraft. Why? Inexperienced workers are often more attentive. They don’t want to screw up.

The lesson here is that it never hurts to ask for some novice viewpoints on small and large projects.

3. Failure to Evolve

Outdated policies, concerns and processes that don’t fit current conditions are often a key factor behind big mistakes.

For instance, back to that Oscars debacle. If you ever notice, two people carry black briefcases with the envelopes. They’re the only people who know the Oscar winners before the envelope is opened. Why? Word got out on the winners hours before the event in 1940. Despite better ways to maintain secrecy today, that’s still the protocol.

That makes a good case for regularly asking employees: “What process or policy doesn’t make sense?” Then vet out what’s outdated and work to modernize the process or policy.

4. Timing

Most mishaps happen near the end of a project or event because people relax when they think they’re over the hump.

For example, the Deepwater Horizon explosion happened after drillers finished the well and were ready to remove their equipment. The job seemed practically done to them.

It makes sense to take a pause near the end of a project or event and make sure everyone is still focused on the right things.